Part 1
Do the sum before the budget
Cost per click, divided by conversion rate, gives you cost per lead. Multiply by how many leads it takes to make a sale and compare with what a customer is worth. If that comparison fails, no amount of optimisation rescues it.
Do this: Do it now, on paper. It takes ten minutes and it decides whether to read the rest of this.
Part 2
Paid search buys existing demand, not new demand
It puts you in front of people already searching for what you sell. If nobody searches for your thing, there is nothing to buy, and the money belongs somewhere that creates demand instead.
Do this: Check monthly search volume for your main terms first. Low volume is an answer, not an obstacle.
Halfway, and free
Part 3
The eBay result is worth knowing about
In a large controlled experiment on their own account, eBay found that turning off branded search ads cost them very little traffic, because most of it arrived through the free listing instead. It is one company and one context, and it is still the most rigorous public test of the question anyone has run.
Do this: Run a geographic holdout on your own brand campaign before you defend its budget.
Part 4
When it is clearly worth it
High customer value, a clear buying intent people type into a search box, and a page that can convert. When those three line up, paid search is often the fastest channel there is, and the honest version of this page is that most of the businesses reading it do not have all three.
Do this: This is our reading of public documentation and one published experiment, not advice for your business. Check it with your own specialist before committing a budget.
This is teaching material and our own reading of public documentation, not advice for your specific account. Check anything important with your own specialist before you act on it.